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By lewis jones, @_LJones_

10:29 AM UK Saturday 25 February 2023

The stakes are so high in the Carabao Cup final that the game may fall into “must not lose” territory and Jones Knows backs penalties at 5/1.

How was last weekend?

Profits made over the Christmas period are being wasted as going for higher prices last weekend was always going to be hard to generate a return. The Kai Havertz to assist a Joao Felix goal against Southampton at 12/1 only got a 45-minute run for his money after Graham Potter decided to shuffle his package. This bet will land when Chelsea start turning their performances into wins, including potentially this weekend at Tottenham where you can get 18/1 for the money from him.

We weren’t too far from tipping Willian to score in Fulham’s 14/1 win at Brighton. Half of that job was done, Fulham were 4/1 for the win, but it was Manor Solomon who scored from the left wing position.

It didn’t jump off the page much in terms of value this weekend. So, it’s all eggs in the final basket of the Carabao Cup.

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P+B = +8

1 point in Manchester United vs Newcastle to go to penalties (5/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

This Carabao Cup final feels more important than most years.

It’s been exactly six years since Manchester United last clinched a major trophy, while Newcastle haven’t won a major domestic trophy for almost 68 years. Winning this match could trigger the start of something very special for both clubs, who have performed above expectations this season.

What has provided the backbone for both teams this season is their ability to avoid defeat even when performance levels have declined. In their last 54 games combined, both have lost just two games each, including in that run the 0-0 Premier League draw between the teams at Old Trafford.

It feels like the stakes are so high and the occasion is so big that this can become a “can’t miss” kind of football game rather than take risks and flow freely. I’ve sat through enough Championship Final play-off games at Wembley to know how such an atmosphere can stop a game from coming to life.

Six of the last 15 League Cup finals have gone to extra time, and the last five finals that have gone to extra time have also gone to penalties. This one has a fantastic opportunity to go down the same path. Take 5/1 with Sky Bet on either team winning on penalties.


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